Dry Bulk Post-Mortem

My conversation with Burak Cetinok, Head of Research at Arrow

Today, I’m going to try something new. Instead of just an audio podcast format, I’m going to share slides you can read to better understand the conversation.

Sometimes podcast listening can be a little bit too passive.

By studying the slides below and listening to shorter, more focused excerpts of speech, I’m hoping you will be more engaged in listening and the info will really “stick”.

My dialog was with Arrow’s Head of Research Burak Cetinok, and the subject was making sense of the recent “double” dry bulk rally… and what to look for going forward. [Please note: we spoke on 20 December 2023]

Enjoy!

First, I ask a question relating to a talk Burak gave in September for HSBC clients. Two of those slides from that are below. The rest of the slides are from a presentation in December 2023.

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Dry bulk tonne-mile growth was actually strong in Q1-Q3 2023, despite weak rates:

…but effective fleet growth ( = unwinding of congestion) hurt earnings:

And the following slides relate to Burak’s answer:

Here you can clearly see Rally #1 (September and into mid October) and Rally #2 (November into December):

Now listen to my question and Burak’s answer, with these in mind: